ReelBob: 2019 Academy Award predictions

By Bob Bloom

In the past few months, the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences has floated the idea of a “most popular picture” category, announced — then lost — a host, was unable to find another host, decided to shorten the broadcast by presenting four awards during commercial breaks and had to backtrack on that idea when Academy members protested.

Worried about the broadcast’s running time, the Oscar’s producers announced a couple of days ago that Queen with Adam Lambert would open the show — even though none of the songs from the Queen-Freddie Mercury biopic, “Bohemian Rhapsody,” were nominated.

Oh, and for all its talk about fairness and equality, all the nominees in the director’s category were men. Forget #OscarSoWhite. How about #OscarSoMale? Better yet, #OscarSoFuckedUp!

This year, politics and social media wars have obscured the usually bland Academy Awards ceremony, turning it into a three-ring circus that people will watch just to see what will go wrong or who will make comments that stir up controversy.

Some historical firsts may be made tonight.

Will “Roma,” which is nominated as best picture and best foreign language film, win both? Or will the Academy throw the movie a bone in the foreign language category, so it can honor a feel-good liberal, erase-your-white-guilt offering such as “Green Book?” Again, it seems many plotlines remain up in the air.

But, as I do every year, I will offer my choices in the top categories, selecting who I believe will win vs. who I wish would win. In some instances, the two may merge. It’s my usual head vs. heart dilemma.

So, here we go.

Best picture

Will win: “Roma,” because it is the best of the films nominated. If it was my choice, I would have “The Rider,” “Leave No Trace” or “The Hate U Give” in place of “Vice” and Bohemian Rhapsody.”

“Roma” is writer-director Alfonso Cuarón’s touching tribute to the women who raised him. It overflows with beauty and emotion. At times, it will break your heart, while other moments raise your spirits and spotlight the goodness in people.

Should win: This is simply my fantasy pick. I would love to see producer Kevin Feige walk on stage and accept the award for “Black Panther.” The movie was so much more than your typical superhero, action flick. It was a cultural event that rippled through society and, a year later, still have people talking about it.

Best actor

Will win: Rami Malek, whose performance as Freddie Mercury in “Bohemian Rhapsody” was flamboyant and spectacular. However, the movie is your familiar and cliched rags-to-riches story, overflowing with tired situations found in dozens of other biopics.

Should win: The actor who deserves the award was not even nominated. Ethan Hawke gave a complex and heartbreaking performance as a minister wracked with doubts in “First Reform.” It was one of the finest portrayals of his career. It’s a shame that Academy members overlooked him.

So, of those remaining who deserves the Oscar? Here, too, I am divided. Willem Dafoe offered a memorable look at Vincent Van Gogh in “Eternity’s Gate.” His characterization eschewed the histrionics other actors who have portrayed the painter, most notably Kirk Douglas, brought to the role. Dafoe gave us a more human and vulnerable Van Gogh.

I also admired Bradley Cooper’s efforts in “A Star is Born.” Cooper not only played the doomed Jackson Maine and showed us a musician trying to stay true to his beliefs while battling his inner demons, but he also directed, co-authored the script and contributed some of the movie’s songs. For all that, plus his haunting performance, he should be recognized.

Of the two, I will lean toward Dafoe for his consistency and dedication to his subject.

Best actress

Will win/Should win: Glenn Close. I have loved Glenn Close since seeing her in “The World According to Garp” and “The Big Chill.” She is an actress whose work always grabs your attention. And her turn in “The Wife” elevated that movie and overcame its shortcomings.

Her Joan Castleman loves her husband and, at the same time, resents him. It’s one of the most complicated performances of her career.

A disclaimer, as much as a believe Close should receive the Oscar, I will not shed many tears if Lady Gaga’s name is announced. She was the emotional heart and soul of “A Star Is Born.” Her Aly seized you and glued your eyes to the movie screen.

And while Olivia Colman was fabulous in “The Favourite,” I do not think she dominated the screen as did Close and Gaga in their movies.

Actor in a supporting role

Will win: Mahershala Ali gave us a Dr. Don Shirley who was so immersed in his world of music that he really did not know much about the outside world — despite all his travels. His Shirley was a cold and demanding artist who hid his weaknesses beneath his talent and a veneer of dignity. Ali presented an unforgettable character who was both teacher and student.

Should win: Sam Elliott. This is definitely an emotional choice. To use an adage, I could listen to Sam Elliott read the phone book. His voice is hypnotic. I enjoy hearing him on screen as much as seeing him. His interaction with Cooper in “A Star Is Born” brings tears to his eyes — and yours.

Actress in a supporting role
Will win/Should win: Regina King for her fierce and loving in If Beale Street Could Talk.” She explored the breadths and depths of a mother’s love and commitment to her child and her family. She made you realize how protective — and supporting — a mother could be in times of crisis.

Director
Will win/Should win: Alfonso Cuarón for “Roma,” a majestic and touching memory piece that spotlights the strength of women in a patriarchal society and era in which men dominated mostly all aspects of life. Cuarón’s affection for his protagonists is so evident on screen that you almost instantly fall in love with them, as well.

“Roma” is such a personal movie that you almost feel as if you are intruding in the lives of its characters as you watch.

If not Cuarón, then I would applaud if Spike Lee’s name was announced. His “BlacKkKlansman” was a deft combination of political and moral outrage blended with some comedic moments at the expense of the bigots who couldn’t shoot straight.

One question about this category, how could Bradley Cooper be ignored, while Adam McKay is recognized for his shrill and simplistic “Vice?”

Foreign language film

Will win/Should win: “Roma,” which could make history by winning picture awards in two categories. This category was very strong — with Lebanon’s “Capernaum,” Poland’s “Cold War,” “Germany’s “Never Look Away” and Japan’s “Shoplifters” — so Academy voters may decide that it is too much to honor one film twice.

That could lead to two scenarios: Either honoring “Roma” is this category, thus offering an opening for another film to take best picture or awarding another of the foreign-language film nominees and awarding “Roma” in the best picture category.

Everything seems rather uncertain this year, so it is difficult to judge what the voters will do, which will make for interesting viewing.

Animated feature film

Will win/Should win: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” is the sure winner. It so outclasses the other nominees in this category, that the suspense surrounding this winner is basically nil. Plus, the movie deserves the award because it was wild, wonderful and innovative — and it was a lot of fun, as well.

Documentary feature

Will win: “RGB.” My problem with this category is that the best documentary of the year, “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” was excluded. For some reason, documentaries that are popular or make money seem to offend voters in this category. “Hoop Dreams,” the best documentary of 1994, also did not receive a nomination. (Can you remember what movie won, and do you recall anything about that doc?)

“RGB” will win, not because it is the best documentary of the year, but because it fits subject matter, Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, is a beloved and iconic figure and honoring the movie also honors her.

Should win: “Minding the Gap,” a look at a group of skateboarding friends over several years was more emotional and visceral, but its subject matter may make some voters — especially the older members — uncomfortable.

Writing (Adapted screenplay)

Will win: “BlacKkKlansman” could be the back-door method in which the Academy finally awards Spike Lee an Oscar. He is one of the four authors of the screenplay. The movie’s script mixed outrage, political insight and humor into a cohesive whole, while giving Lee a window to vent his frustration with where our nation seems to be heading.

Should win: Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty’s script for “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” was acerbic, cutting, witty and heartbreaking as it charted the downfall of celebrity author Lee Israel, presenting a damaged woman who you may not have liked, but were able to understand.

Writing (Original screenplay)

Will win: Paul Schrader wrote “Taxi Driver,” “Blue Collar,” “Raging Bull” and “The Last Temptation of Christ,” yet has never won an Oscar. This is the year the Academy can make it up to him. “First Reformed” was one of the most criminally overlooked movies of the year, and this can be amends for that oversight — as well as for honoring a screenwriter who deserves his moment in the spotlight.

Should win: Unfortunately, Bo Burnham’s “Eighth Grade” was snubbed by the Academy in many categories. But Burnham’s script captured the insecurities and awkwardness of young adolescence as no other film before it. It’s a crime that the film did not even receive a nomination.

Cinematography
Will win/Should win: Alfonso Cuarón for his beautifully composed “Roma.” He filmed it in black and white, yet still brought the people and places to life. At times, it seemed as if the movie shimmered and hypnotized you.
And it showed the how a great cinematographer can artistically utilize back and white to create atmosphere and mood.

Music (Original song)

Will win/Should win: “Shallow” from “A Star Is Born.” The song is powerful and, as filmed by actor-director Bradley Cooper and performed by Lady Gaga and Cooper, it is an unforgettable moment and the highlight in an emotionally-charged film.

No other nominated song even approaches it in impact or appeal.

Music (Original score)

Will win/Should win: Nicholas Brittell for “If Beale Street Could Talk.” Brittell’s music connected with the characters and poignant ebb and flow of the movie; it abetted the action and sensitivity of the subject matter in a manner that advanced the movie.

The rest of the categories

Costume design: Sandy Powell “The Favourite”

Documentary (Short subject): “Period. End of Sentence”

Film editing: Barry Alexander Brown “BlacKkKlansman”

Makeup and Hair styling: “Mary Queen of Scots”

Production design: “Roma”

Short Subject (animated): “Bao”

Short Subject (live action): Marguerite

Sound Editing: “Bohemian Rhapsody”

Sound Mixing: “Bohemian Rhapsody”

Visual Effects: “First Man”

The Academy Awards presentations begin at 8 p.m. Sunday on ABC. By midnight, all the suspense will have dissipated and we can get back to normalcy.

I am a founding member of the Indiana Film Journalists Association. My reviews appear at ReelBob (reelbob.com) and Rottentomatoes (www.rottentomatoes.com). I also review Blu-rays and DVDs. I can be reached by email at bobbloomjc@gmail.com or on Twitter @ReelBobBloom. Links to my reviews can be found on Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn.