ReelBob: My Academy Award predictions

By Bob Bloom

This year’s Academy Awards will have about as much drama as the Kansas City Chiefs playing a high school prep team. From the kickoff, you know the outcome is more than likely guaranteed.

That is basically the situation with this year’s Oscar nominees.

The winners in at least seven of the major categories can be predicted with a certainty that no upsets will occur.

I will follow my usual practice of head vs. heart, naming who I believe will win and whom I feel actually deserve the golden statue.

So, let’s start with the top awards and take it from there, with the seven I think are no-brainers.

Best picture

Will win: “1917.” As most of the people who read my reviews know, I was not at all impressed with this World War I drama. I found it a gimmick film with one-dimensional characters who ran around more like avatars in a video game than people.

But, the “experts” in the movie industry were taken in by the movie, which has won several best picture awards already. So, the steamroller — or tank — continues its momentum onto its inevitable recognition.

Should win: “Parasite” was one of the most original with its story of class distinction, family and dreams of a better life. It is a movie that sticks in your mind, even months after seeing it.

Best actor

Will win/Should win: Joaquin Phoenix for “Joker.” Phoenix’s dedication and immersion into his character was unforgettable and phenomenal. He created a portrait of mental illness that gave context and complexity rarely found in a comic-book character origin story.

Even as Phoenix’s Arthur Fleck-Joker performed heinous and unspeakable acts you were mesmerized and repulsed by him.

Best actress

Will win/Should win: Renee Zellweger for her portrayal of The Great Garland in “Judy.” She rose above the mostly cliched material to reveal a broken woman damaged by those who exploited her as a child.

Zellweger highlighted the vulnerability and insecurities that haunted Garland for decades. She also was able to detail how Garland hid her self-doubts behind a diva-like and demanding persona.

Actor in a supporting role

Will win/Should win: Brad Pitt for his stuntman Cliff Booth in “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood.” Pitt instilled a Steve McQueen-like cool in Booth; a self-confident man that allowed him to confront any situation  without fear.

Pitt’s Booth displayed a loyalty to his down-and-out friend Rick Dalton, played by Leonardo Di Caprio that was charming and emotionally satisfying.

Actress in a supporting role

Will win/Should win: Laura Dern has been making movies since she about 6 years old. She has appeared in blockbusters (“Jurassic Park” and “Star Wars: Episode 8: The Last Jedi”), small movies (“Rambling Rose” and “Mask”) and such unforgettable movies as “Blue Velvet” and “Wild at Heart.”

When Dern appears on screen in “Marriage Story,” it is as if the movie shifted gears. She brought an energy and cynical buoyancy to her divorce lawyer, Nora Fanshaw, that made you follow her wherever she went on the screen.

“Marriage Story” is a melancholy movie that may have been unbearable if not for Dern’s vibrant and smart characterization.

Director

Will win: Sam Mendes for “1917.” Mendes experiment was to shoot his film, so it looked as if it was done in one long take without cuts.

To me, that is not deserving of an Academy Award. That is a gimmick to distract an audience from the shortcomings of his characters and overall story.

Should win: I would enjoy seeing Bong Joon Ho come to the stage and accept an Oscar for his direction of “Parasite.” He sleight-of-hand, making us believe the movie was going one way until the pulled out the rug and took us on a different path was a master class in filmmaking.

Yes, his movie will probably walk away with the newly named International Feature Film Oscar. Recognizing his talent in this category would be icing on the cake.

International feature film

Will win/Should win: “Parasite” — for the reasons I have previously stated.

Documentary (feature)
Will win/Should win: It was a very strong year for documentaries; more than the five selected deserved to  be nominated. But of those that were, “For Sama” stands out high above the rest.

If you saw this movie and did not weep, then you have no heart. The movie chronicled life in Aleppo during the Syrian civil war focusing on a female journalist who used her video camera to detail day-to-day life — and death — in the besieged city, while taking care of her baby daughter.

Here are my other selections, including categories on which I will not bet the farm:

Animated feature

Will win/Should win: “Klaus” reimagines the origin of Santa Claus in this fun tale of the worst student at a postal academy sent to an outpost in the Arctic Circle.

A major original release, “I Lost My Body” was bizarre, and probably was seen by very few people. Its premise was off-the-wall, but the animation was interesting enough to carry the movie.

Writing (adapted screenplay)
Will win/Should win: Consider this a consolation prize Greta Gerwig and her adaptation of Louisa May Alcott’s “Little Women.”

Her scripted added texture and a contemporary sensibility to the classic, well-loved story that has been filmed multiple times.

The fly in this ointment is that the Writers Guild of America bestowed its award on Taika Waititi’s screenplay for “Jojo Rabbit.” How much weight that will carry over to the Academy Awards is the question.

Writing (original screenplay)

Will win/Should win: Bong Joon Ho’s original screenplay for “Parasite,” co-written with Han Jin Won, was filled with surprises. But, again, will voters use this as another consolation prize even if the movie is honored as best International Feature Film?

The Writer’s Guild celebrated “Parasite.” Will the full Academy do the same” Or will they decide, as in adapted screenplay, to perhaps honor Noah Baumbach for his script for “Marriage Story?”

Cinematography

Will win: Roger Deakins for “1917.” While I may have disliked the movie, I was — and always have been — impressed by Deakins work. The night scenes, especially, in “1917” were well executed. Deakins talent was a major plus that greatly helped procure the accolades the movie has received.

Should win: Jarin Blaschke’s black-and-white, atmospheric camera work on “The Lighthouse” was magnificent in creating the atmosphere of dread and suspense that director Robert Eggers needed to sell his film.

Blaschke’s work has mostly been lost in the conversation for this category, but it is worth keeping in mind.

Documentary (short subject)
Will win/Should win: “Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) looks at a school hidden away in Kabul, Afghanistan, where young girls learn to not only read and write, but to skateboard.

These girls, as well as their teachers, risk punishment — and even death — for going against the restrictive norms of this very strict and conservative society in which most women are denied the rights and opportunities afforded men.

Film editing

Will win/Should win: Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland’s work on “Ford v Ferrari” was breathtaking. During the racing sequences, they put you in the race car with Christian Bale’s Ken Miles and Matt Damon’s Carroll Shelby.

You felt as if you needed to buckle up — even if your theater seat.

Music (original score)
Will win/Should win: Hildur Guðnadóttir for “Joker.” The score, like the movie, was a bit off-kilter and complemented the action on screen.

However, Thomas Newman’s score for “1917” cannot be discounted. It is one of those majestic pieces that Academy voters love to single out.

Music (original song)
Will win/Should win: Elton John and Bernie Taupin for “I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” which they composed for the John biopic, “Rocketman.” Who doesn’t want to see John and Taupin on stage at the Oscars?

And finally, the categories that need no discussion:

Costume design: “Little Women,” Jacqueline Durran

Makeup and hairstyling: “Bombshell,” Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan and Vivian Baker

Production design: Barbara Ling (production design) and Nancy Haigh (set decoration), “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”

Short film (animated): “Hair Love,” Matthew A. Cherry and Karen Rupert Toliver

Short film (live action): “Nefta Football Club,” Yves Piat and Damien Magherbi

Sound editing: “Ford v Ferrari,’ Donald Sylvester

Sound mixing: “Ford v Ferrari,” Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Steven A. Morrow

Visual effects: “Avengers: Endgame,” Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken and Dan Sudick

So, you can check make your own selections and, like me, watch the ceremony beginning at 8 p.m. on ABC.

I am a founding member of the Indiana Film Journalists Association. My reviews appear at ReelBob (reelbob.com) and Rottentomatoes (www.rottentomatoes.com). I also review Blu-rays and DVDs. I can be reached by email at bobbloomjc@gmail.com or on Twitter @ReelBobBloom. Links to my reviews can be found on Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn.